Steel futures and the physical market: understanding basis risk

Steel futures or financially settled contracts transfer price exposure to a defined index. They do not necessarily deliver the particular coil, scrap or rebar required by a project. Evaluate technical specifications, the price basis, delivery terms and quality evidence together. A lower number is not a comparable offer if it covers a different grade, weight, coating or delivery scope.[1][2]

For buyers comparing Iranian supply with international benchmarks, align product, grade, dimensions, assessment date, currency and delivery basis before discussing a premium or discount. Request an offer in the executable settlement currency at a named port or final delivery location, and show freight, insurance, handling, applicable charges and financing separately. Confirm destination acceptance of the material and documents. Iranian exchange and stockholder data can explain domestic supply conditions, but neither a benchmark nor a domestic quote is itself an executable export offer.

A hedge works best when the physical purchase price has a stable relationship with the contract index. The difference is basis risk and can reflect quality, region, currency, tax or delivery timing.[2][3][4]

Review symbol, expiry month, settlement method, contract size, underlying index, corresponding physical market, liquidity requirements and basis-risk scenarios together. Compare offers only after aligning units, the weight basis, taxes, packaging, loading, freight and quote validity. An omitted cost can outweigh the apparent saving per kilogram. Keep the supplier’s currency and payment date visible before converting to your purchasing currency.

Ask every supplier to answer the same written specification. This prevents an apparently cheaper offer from silently changing the product or scope. Confirm the following before comparing prices:

Use this table to structure the decision. It does not replace engineering calculations or the contract. The final column identifies the evidence to review before accepting an offer.

Errors often begin when a trade name replaces a technical specification, one photograph stands for an entire shipment, or the delivery scope is missing from the quote. Address these specific risks: Basis risk; Maturity mismatch; Margin funding needs; Assuming physical delivery from a financial contract. Turn each risk into a written acceptance criterion, sampling requirement or traceable document.

A standard number alone does not demonstrate conformity. Specify the edition, grade, dimensions, tolerances, test method, heat or batch number and acceptance authority. For an import project, confirm the destination’s requirements and the project’s approved specification; an Iranian market designation is not automatic evidence of an equivalent local grade.

A hedge isolates part of shared price variation rather than reproducing the exact physical product price. Map physical and basis exposures before choosing a financial instrument.[4][5]

Before ordering, prepare a single comparison sheet covering the product, quantity, unit, theoretical and actual weight, base price, taxes, freight, delivery window, documents and acceptance criteria. Identify who pays each cost and who records discrepancies at receipt. This makes the negotiation clearer and gives the receiving team an agreed basis for checking the shipment.